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Europe faces a challenging future in transatlantic economic relations as President-elect Donald Trump signals his intent to leverage American trade power for foreign policy objectives. This development raises concerns about potential tariff clashes and the implications for global supply chains.
Trump has appointed Greer, a former chief of staff to trade representative Lighthizer, as his trade chief, signaling a push for aggressive trade policies against China. Greer advocates for strict enforcement of existing trade agreements and new deals with countries like the U.K. and India, while downplaying inflation risks from tariffs. He emphasizes the need for long-term strategic competition with China, despite potential short-term costs for businesses.
Israeli and Lebanese leaders have agreed to a ceasefire amid ongoing conflict. Meanwhile, Mexico responds to US president-elect Donald Trump's tariff proposals, while President Joe Biden works to solidify his legacy in his final weeks in office. Additionally, the Russian rouble has fallen to its lowest value against the dollar since the onset of the Ukraine invasion.
Morgan Stanley projects India's GDP growth to improve to 6.7% in the December 2024 quarter, despite a current slowdown. While concerns arise over potential U.S. tariffs under President-elect Trump, the brokerage notes that India and Japan are less vulnerable to these risks due to structural advantages and effective policy measures. A 10% tariff increase could reduce India's growth by approximately 30 basis points.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are showing caution as long positions in index futures decrease, with the long-short ratio dropping to 34.89. The Nifty index is expected to remain range-bound, facing resistance at 24,350–24,400, while holding above the critical support level of 24,100 is crucial to prevent a deeper correction. On Tuesday, the Nifty closed at 24,194.50, down 0.11%, within a narrow 217-point range, indicating long unwinding in the futures and options market.
Asian stocks faced pressure as concerns grew over potential tariffs from incoming U.S. President Donald Trump, particularly targeting Canada, Mexico, and China. The yuan weakened to 7.2650 per dollar, nearing a four-month low, while the Australian dollar also approached its recent lows. In contrast, the New Zealand dollar rebounded after a smaller-than-expected interest rate cut by its central bank.
The EU is adopting a cautious wait-and-see strategy in response to the Trump presidency, aiming to avoid a trade war. Leaders are addressing economic challenges in Budapest, while Ukrainian President Zelenskyy dismisses Trump's rapid peace proposal for Ukraine. French President Macron emphasizes the need for Europe to strengthen its position in a competitive global landscape.
The US dollar steadied against major currencies as investors assessed President-elect Trump's tariff promises and awaited key inflation data. The New Zealand dollar rose following a 50 basis point rate cut by its central bank, while the Israeli shekel reached a three-month high amid a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. The dollar index dipped slightly, reflecting recent volatility influenced by political developments.
President Claudia Sheinbaum warned of potential retaliation against Donald Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico, emphasizing that such measures could have dire economic consequences. She advocated for cooperation to address the root causes of migration and illegal drug flow, highlighting the risks to major exporters like General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford. Sheinbaum's stance reflects a desire to maintain a balanced approach amid escalating tensions between the US and China, signaling a preference for collaboration with the US, Mexico's primary trading partner.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open flat to positive on November 27, following GIFT Nifty's performance around 24,240.50. On November 26, the indices ended a two-day rally, with Sensex down 105.79 points at 80,004.06 and Nifty down 27.40 points at 24,194.50.
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